To create a comprehensive Growth Strategy for Eswatini, the following key approaches should guide the process: This involves a detailed analysis of the current state of the economy, identifying structural challenges and bottlenecks that limit growth. It requires reviewing historical data, current performance, and understanding the root causes of stagnation in growth, investment, and employment. Already some very insightful work has been done by the World Bank under the “In search of Drivers of Growth” report. In addition the World Bank has completed other analytical work on the digital sector with further work ongoing in the financial sector as well as in agriculture. As much as possible the growth strategy formulation process should draw from this work and other relevant work in different sectors and as much as possible avoid duplication.

This approach involves a detailed analysis of the current state of the economy, identifying structural challenges and bottlenecks that limit growth. It requires reviewing historical data, current performance, and understanding the root causes of stagnation in growth, investment, and employment.

This diagnostic should also focus on key sectors of the economy (e.g., agriculture, manufacturing, services) to identify high-potential areas for growth, areas of comparative advantage, and sectors that are strategically important for long-term economic development.

Furthermore, the diagnostic will identify the factors that determine the performance of Eswatini’’s economy, by quantifying, with an econometric simulation, the impact of each factor in order to establish priorities in terms of public policies. For the quantification of factors effects, of all the determinants of economic growth, only the indicators available in the WDI/WB database and other international databases should be considered: with the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita over a long period as the variable to be explained, human capital, investment rate, ratio of imports and exports to GDP, inflation, loans to economy, technology penetration, general Government expenditure as share of GDP, etc.

Globally, the following key questions should be considered for the analysis:

Economic Performance and Constraints: The World Bank study titled “in search of the drivers of inclusive growth” has identified some drivers. This assignment will as much as possible utilise this study and the others referred to earlier. Some of the issues the study will have to confirm are:

• What are the key drivers of Eswatini’s GDP growth and high unemployment rates?
• What structural constraints are holding back economic growth (e.g., fiscal unsustainability, declining private investment, infrastructure gaps)?
• How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected Eswatini’s economic prospects?

Sectoral Potential:

• Which sectors have the highest growth potential and can generate quick economic gains?
• What are the country’s comparative advantages in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture, tourism, manufacturing)?
• How can sectoral linkages be strengthened to maximize value addition and improve competitiveness?

Diversification and Value Chains:

• What are the opportunities for economic diversification?
• Which sectors or sub-sectors can be further developed through value chain integration?
• How can Eswatini tap into regional and international markets through AfCFTA and other trade agreements?

Investment and Innovation:

• Which sectors currently attract the most investment, and how can investor confidence be boosted?
• What are the barriers to attracting more foreign direct investment (FDI), and how can these be addressed?
• How can innovation be fostered in key sectors to drive productivity and growth?

Inclusive Growth and Employment:

• What measures can be implemented to reduce unemployment, particularly among youth, women, and other disavataged groups?
• How can skills gaps be addressed to meet the demands of emerging and high-potential sectors?
• What specific projects and interventions can boost job creation and economic participation for marginalized groups?

Sustainability and Resilience:

• What are the environmental and climate risks that must be factored into Eswatini’s Growth Strategy?
• How can Eswatini transition to a low-carbon economy while fostering economic growth?

Institutional Capacity and Implementation:

• Which institutions are responsible or have a part to play in implementing the Growth Strategy, and what capacity-building efforts are needed to ensure success?
• What structures need to be put in place to ensure smooth implementation of the Growth Strategy?
• What are the monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to ensure effective implementation of the strategy?

Inclusive and Sustainable Growth strategic framework, including the implementation, monitoring and evaluation mechanism:

The strategy must promote inclusive growth, ensuring that economic benefits reach all segments of the population, including marginalized groups like women, youth, and people in rural areas. It must also prioritize sustainable practices to meet global environmental and climate goals.

Development of a Comprehensive Growth Strategy Document:

• Draft a detailed Growth Strategy document that incorporates all the findings, analyses, and recommendations from the above tasks.
• Ensure that the strategy is aligned with Eswatini’s National Development Plan, regional integration strategies (e.g., AfCFTA), and global development frameworks (e.g., SDGs).

To this end, it will be necessary to :

• propose a vision and its translation into objectives and strategic outcomes for the development of the Growth Strategy in Eswatini;

• identify and define the various strategic activities to be undertaken in order to achieve the required objectives;

• propose the institutional mechanism for the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the Strategy.

• Propose a robust monitoring and evaluation framework, including key performance indicators (KPIs) to track the progress of the strategy.

4. Stakeholder Engagement and Policy Alignment:

Ensuring that the strategy aligns with national priorities, such as the National Development Plan (NDP), as well as regional and international frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

5. Strategy action plan development.

The identification of the actions and activities to be implemented in the short and medium term (5 years) will be set out in an action plan which will specify:

strategic activities with high added value that can be implemented with relatively low complexity and feasibility;

Identify the monitoring indictors, define timelines, resource requirements, and roles of different stakeholders.

Ensure that the implementation plan aligns with Eswatini’s existing governance structures and capacities.

Assess the cost of implementation and propose a financing plan for each strategic activity.