Result of Service

The methodology along with the questionnaire for multidimensional risk analysis Final report on multidimensional risk assessment for Kazakhstan

Work Location

Astana, Kazakhstan

Expected duration

2 month (20 days)

Duties and Responsibilities

1. BACKGROUND The United Nations Common Country Analysis (CCA) responds to the urgency of the 2030 Agenda by delivering integrated, forward-looking, and evidence-based joint analysis of the context for sustainable development in a country. The CCA is a signature function of the UNCT, generating tailored analytical products at the country level. It is part of a strategic pivot for the UN towards becoming the top source for independent, trusted analysis and policy advisory support on sustainable development in the 21st century. The preparation of the CCA involves an impartial, independent, and collective assessment and analysis of the country’s context for sustainable development. This process serves a basis for setting development priorities and designing the next cycle of the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF) for Kazakhstan for period 2026-2030. The development of a new full-fledged CCA will be grounded in the accumulated knowledge and expertise of United Nations Country Team, ensuring stakeholder engagement to make the CCA an extroverted process and product, rather than an UN-centric one. At every step, the new CCA will be data-driven and will build an evidence base sensitive to dynamic changes. As such, the CCA will need to look beyond official national statistics to draw on all sources of quantitative and qualitative data from across the data ecosystem, including primary research where appropriate, non-traditional data sources, and emerging technologies to address gaps in reliability, disaggregation, or timeliness. The CCA will require an inter-disciplinary approach that can navigate the multi-dimensional nature of the 2030 Agenda and shed light on the persistence of intractable and complex development challenges, and on why certain groups of people and certain places are left behind or are at risk of being left behind. Consequently, the logical next step is understanding the different elements that are currently impacting or that pose a risk to the development trajectory of the country, thus hindering national efforts to achieve the SDGs and their targets; country efforts to reduce the patterns of inequality, exclusion and discrimination affecting those being left behind, and country efforts to fulfill the country’s obligations under international human rights law. To provide the foundation for a well-coordinated and integrated UNSDCF, which takes a systems approach to development that builds resilience and reduces risks, the CCA should provide a multi-dimensional analysis of risks that considers the 12 dimensions of the SDG-based Risk Framework established by the UN. Analyzing each of these 12 dimensions, the risk analysis should outline existing or emerging risks and their potential impact on a country’s development trajectory, particularly its impact on those furthest behind. 2. SCOPE OF WORK The National Consultant will implement their obligations under the direct supervision and guidance of the Economist of the Resident Coordinator’s Office in Kazakhstan. The National Consultant will be responsible for the following tasks: 1. Designing and conducting an online survey. It is expected that the national consultant will outline approach and methodology to be used in conducting the survey, including sampling strategy, data collection methods, tools and timeline, analytical techniques to be employed, as well as measures to ensure data validity, reliability, and integrity. In addition, the national consultant must develop a questionnaire. The number of respondents should be at least 50 respondents, representing public and private sectors, civil society organizations, academia, and UN Agencies. The purpose of the survey is to identify expert view on critical risks, opportunities and uncertainties related to Kazakhstan’s sustainable development up to 2030. By applying a multidimensional SDG-based risk framework, the survey should include questions related to economic and financial risks. The survey should help to examine the probability, impacts and priority of existing, emerging, and future risks on a country’s development trajectory, particularly in terms of the consequences for those furthest left behind. The survey should include broad demographic questions without revealing the identity of a respondent. The length of the survey should not be longer than 25 minutes to complete. The survey should be in English and Russian. 2. Developing a report on multidimensional risk assessment for Kazakhstan (at least 20 pages). The analysis should use the results of the survey but not limited to it. The consultant should employ desk research and use available sources of quantitative and qualitative data from across the data ecosystem. In addition, the analysis should be built on findings from strategic session with civil society organizations and private sector held on April 19, 2024, as well as Driver-based Scenario Building exercise with the United Nations Country Team held on April 23-25, 2024. The analysis should point to challenges and opportunities for early warning and prevention. As each risk dimension is assessed, there should be consideration of its scope and potential impact on existing vulnerable groups, as well as on people made vulnerable through crisis. The analysis has to map the roles and capacities of actors working in and across the development, humanitarian, human rights, and peace domains. The analysis should include early warning indicators and innovative data sources to inform United Nations and government preparedness while undertaking horizon scanning for resilience and adaptive practices. The report should be written in English with the executive summary presented innovatively in graphic form and summarize key information. The report and presentation should be submitted in English. 3. FINAL DELIVERABLES The table below outlines the final deliverables according to specific deadlines. The methodology along with the questionnaire for multidimensional risk analysis – June 12, 2024 Final report on multidimensional risk assessment for Kazakhstan – July 10, 2024

Qualifications/special skills

Master’s degree or equivalent in a relevant field such as Economics, Public Policy, Development Studies, Social Sciences, Environmental Sciences, or a bachelor’s degree, in combination with an additional two years of qualifying experience, will be given due consideration in lieu of the advanced university degree is required. A minimum of 5 years of relevant professional experience in sustainable development, policy analysis, , or risk analysis is required. Proven experience in designing and conducting online surveys is desirable. Knowledge of risk assessment frameworks and methodologies, particularly related to sustainable development and resilience-building, would be an advantage. Excellent written communication skills, including the ability to write reports, conduct studies and to articulate ideas in a clear and concise style in English. Other attributes An understanding of and ability to abide by the values of the United Nations.

Languages

Fluency in English and Russian is required. Knowledge of Kazakh is preferable.

Additional Information

Functional Competencies Analytical Skills: The consultant should possess strong analytical skills to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the context for sustainable development in Kazakhstan. This includes the ability to interpret data, identify trends, and assess the likelihood and potential impact of multidimensional risks. Data-driven Approach: The consultant must utilize a data-driven approach sensitive to dynamic changes, drawing on all sources of quantitative and qualitative data from across the data ecosystem. This includes proficiency in analysing data from primary research, non-traditional sources, and emerging technologies. Risk Assessment: The consultant must have knowledge of risk assessment frameworks and methodologies, particularly related to sustainable development and resilience-building. This includes the ability to identify existing, emerging, and future risks and assess their potential impact on Kazakhstan’s development trajectory. APPLICATION Interested candidates shall submit documentation demonstrating why they are the best suited to carry out the above task. This should include: • Latest CV and a sample of previous works. • A brief outline of the strengths and expertise highlighting directly relevant experiences to the assignment. These should encompass experience and knowledge in design and conducting surveys. • Approach to work/suggested methodology and work-plan • Financial Proposal (inclusive of expenses related to travels and DSA) as required. ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES The National Consultant will be responsible for their own cross-country travel arrangements if needed. No additional costs outside of the scope of this TOR will be covered. The consultant must possess their own laptop and other technical equipment to complete the assignment. The documents produced during the period of this consultancy will be treated strictly confidential and the rights of distribution and/or publication shall solely reside with the UN. REFERENCE DOCUMENTS The Economist of the Resident Coordinator’s Office in Kazakhstan will collect all relevant documents to share with the consultant. The key documents will include: • UNSDCF Kazakhstan 2021-2025 • Annual Results Reports • Common Country Analysis (latest update December 2023) • Checklist on Integrating Human Rights, Leave No One Behind, and Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment in Common Country Analyses (CCAs) • Operationalizing Leaving No One Behind: good practice note for UN Country Teams • Designing Cooperation Framework: The Common Country Analysis (current guidance) • Risk Spotlight for Kazakhstan Common Country Analysis developed by UNDRR • Other documents as relevant • Minutes of the strategic session with civil society organizations and private sector held on April 19, 2024, as well as findings from Driver-based Scenario Building exercise with the United Nations Country Team held on April 23-25, 2024. Interested candidates shall submit documentations demonstrating why they are the best-suited to carry out the above task. This should include: • Latest CV and a sample of previous works. • A brief outline of the strengths and expertise highlighting directly relevant experiences to the assignment, including experience and knowledge in the UN programming principles (LNOB, human rights, GEWE, environmental sustainability and resilience, and accountability) • Approach to work/suggested methodology and work-plan • Financial Proposal (inclusive of expenses related to travels and DSA) as required Administrative Issues The international Team Leader and National Team Member will be responsible for own travel arrangements cross-country. No additional costs outside of the scope of this TOR will be covered. The consultants will have to possess their own laptop and other technical equipment to complete the assignment. The documents produced during the period of this consultancy will be treated strictly confidential and the rights of distribution and/or publication shall solely reside with the UN. Reference documents The evaluation manager will collect all relevant documents to share with the Evaluation Team Leader and National Team Member. The key documents will include: • UNSDCF Evaluation Guidelines – Engl – Revised July 2022 • UNEG Norms and Standards (2016) and the UNEG Ethical Guidelines (2020) • UNSDCF Kazakhstan 2021-2025 • Joint Work Plans • Annual Results Reports • UNINFO data • Steering Committee meeting reports • CF Result Matrix Monitoring document • Common Country Analysis (latest update December 2023) • Information Management Survey Reports

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.