Organizational Context

Executive Summary

This consultancy aims to strengthen the Red Cross Red Crescent (RCRC) preparedness and response to extreme rain events in Europe, drawing on lessons from 2021–2024. The work is planned across interconnected phases: a scoping study, a workshop with National Societies to unpack the study and subsequent implementation based on outcomes from the workshop. This consultancy focuses on the scoping study with an option to discuss the design and facilitation of the workshop.

Job Purpose

Purpose: To identify learnings and gaps and recommend improvements in RCRC preparedness, response and programming for extreme rain events.

Background

Extreme rain events have become more frequent and severe in Europe, causing widespread humanitarian and economic impacts. Between 2021 and 2024, Europe experienced numerous river floods and flash floods events, many linked to storms and secondary disasters such as landslides and mudslides. This period highlighted the vulnerabilities of communities and systems in the face of changing climatic conditions.

Data from this period underscores the urgency for action:

• Economic Impact: Losses exceeding €162 billion (EU, 2021–2023)[1].
• Humanitarian Impact: Close to 3 million people affected, nearly 800 fatalities[2].
• Climate Change Attribution: Rain intensity increased by around 10%, with more frequent extreme events, as per attribution studies.

[2] Tentative/estimated data from flooding events in Spain added manually.

Despite significant investments in flood prevention, early warning systems, and risk communication, disparities remain across the region. National Societies in the EU and Western Europe generally demonstrate higher capacities, while other countries face resource and structural challenges. The RCRC’s ability to adapt to these changes and effectively coordinate across different contexts is critical to reducing risks and ensuring timely, effective responses.

Purpose and Objectives

The purpose of this consultancy and the scoping study is to analyze extreme rain events from 2021 to 2024, assessing how the context is changing, how preparedness and response strategies have evolved and identifying actionable improvements for the RCRC network.

Objectives include:

• Analyzing shifts in weather patterns, flood risks, and their drivers.
• Summarizing operational trends, learnings, and strategic change and trends.
• Identifying internal and external gaps in preparedness and recommending actionable steps for National Societies to improve (internal) and contribute (external) to bridging these gaps, in preparedness or through advocacy
• Highlighting areas for further research and collaborative planning.
• Unearthing narratives and evidence for humanitarian diplomacy and advocacy on regional and national level.

Scoping study (“What we see”)

The scoping study will

• provide a comprehensive analysis of extreme rain events across Europe, focusing on the changing risk environment influenced by climate change
• analyze and summarize lessons learned and highlight best practices in operational adaptations by RCRC and other actors.
• Identify gaps in current preparedness strategies and potential areas for enhancement and;
• provide recommendations for further studies/research related to anticipatory action, preparedness and readiness for climate related risks and;
• identify narratives and evidence to contribute to the Climate Humanitarian Diplomacy playbook.

Job Duties and Responsibilities

Core Components

• Analysis of Risk Environment: Examining changes in climate and weather patterns, and their impact on flood frequency and intensity.
• Operational Observations: Trends in anticipatory action, preparedness planning, early warning systems, and community-level adaptations.
• Strategic Recommendations: Suggestions for improving response effectiveness and further research.
• Humanitarian Diplomacy: Identify narratives and evidence for use in humanitarian diplomacy and advocacy, on regional or national level

Methodology

• The review will be done as a desktop review of documentation, including academic research, evaluations, reviews and lessons learned reports by the EU, authorities and National Societies.
• The review is not foreseen to include key informant interviews. However, the IFRC will provide a list of contacts in National Societies, Red Cross Climate Centre and externals for snowballing of material to help identify what is available.
• Two relevant parallel processes can contribute to/align with the methodology:
  • Lesson learned workshops for three (3) DREF operations will be held in Q1 and alignment can be sought in cooperation with the Operations Manager
  • A global study on climate displacement is planned to examine this topic in Europe and synergies and alignment can be sought with the relevant consultant.

Guiding questions

• How has climate change influenced the frequency and magnitude of extreme rain events and how is this risk projected to change in the future?
• What gaps exist in current preparedness strategies including early warning systems, particularly in reaching vulnerable populations and groups?
• How have community risk awareness, perceptions and preparedness evolved over the past decade?
• What operational challenges and limitations have National Societies encountered in recent responses?
• Which best practices offer the greatest potential for scalability across different contexts?
• What areas of focus could warrant further study and research to advance preparedness and readiness for climate-related risks?
• What actionable steps can be identified to improve flood anticipatory action, preparedness and response?

The scoping study will be shared with National Societies ahead of the workshop, to allow for increased preparedness of participants.

Deliverable: A Scoping Study (20–25 pages) with a 2-page executive summary and targeted, concrete recommendations of areas to explore to enhance and adapt preparedness and response to the evolving risks related to extreme rainfall.

Job Duties and Responsibilities (continued)

Workshop (“how we tackle the challenges“)

Note that the design, delivery and reporting on a workshop is not by default included in the ToR as it might require a separate skillset and could also be decided to be done in-house, fully or partially. We invite consultants with the relevant experience to comment on the below and propose their engagement, ranging from the full component to the reporting on the workshop.

Building on the findings of the scoping study, the workshop will convene representatives from National Societies and IFRC to:

• Validate and prioritize the challenges identified in the study.
• Facilitate the exchange of lessons learned and good practices.
• Co-develop strategies to address preparedness gaps and operational challenges as per recommendations from the scoping study.

Workshop Deliverables:

• A detailed agenda tailored to the needs of participants.
• A facilitation guide outlining tools and methodologies.
• A comprehensive workshop report documenting validated findings and next steps.

The Workshop report will guide the subsequent stage where NS and IFRC move forward implementing the recommendations.

Deliverable: Workshop design and facilitation, including an agenda, a facilitation guide, and a workshop report on outcomes.

Timeline and Budget

Indicative Timeline:

• Data Collection and Desk Review: December 2024 – January 2025 (8 days).
• Report Writing: January 2025 (3 days).
• Workshop Preparation: February 2025 (3 days)[3].
• Workshop Facilitation: March 2025 (3 days, including travel).
• Report Finalization: March 2025 (1 days).

Total Working Days: Up to 18 days.

Time Allocation, for budget purposes

From January 2025 until end of Quarter 1-2025 with a maximum of 18 working days to be covered by the consultancy fees.

[3] If agreed to be included in the consultancy

Competencies, Values and Comments

Management

The consultant will work remotely, with potential visits to the Regional Office in Budapest during the work on the scoping study. They will report to the Senior Officer for Monitoring and Evaluation at IFRC, collaborating with PMER staff and other stakeholders to ensure the successful delivery of outputs. The overall process is led by the Management Team as outlined above.

Schedule for payment of fees

The consultancy fees will be transferred against an invoice after the proper handover and quality-check of the deliverables.