Micronutrient deficiency remains a major concern, affecting more than 2 billion people globally. Supplementation, dietary diversification, fortification, and biofortification are so far the most widely used and documented strategies to address micronutrient deficieny at scale. In Pakistan, HarvestPlus works with CIMMYT and National Agricultural Research Institutions to lead varietal development and release. The first biofortified wheat variety, Zincol2016, was released in 2016 and by end of 2023, an additional four varieties, Akbar 2019; Nawab-21, TARNAB-GANDHUM-I; and TARNAB-REHBAR, had been released. Once varieties are released, HarvestPlus works with the public and private sector to take the varieties to the market and commercialize them. Private seed companies lead the production and marketing of all wheat seed, including zinc wheat seed, in Pakistan. Akbar 2019 has since become one of the most popular wheat varieties in Pakistan, commanding a significant share of the total commercial/certified wheat seed on the market for the past 5 growing seasons, pitching a great story of successful rapid scaling. Existing seed production data suggests that Akbar 2019 has, or is fast becoming, a mega variety, especially in the province of Punjab. To validate this claim, HarvestPlus is commissioning a study to map the footprint in the province of Punjab. To validate this claim, HarvestPlus is commissioning a study to map the footprint of zinc wheat varieties in Pakistan, comparing the dietary zinc contribution of biofortified wheat varieties relative to commercially successful non-biofortified cultivars with a special focus on the Punjab province.

Objective

The overall purpose of the consultancy is to assess the share and dietary zinc contribution of the wheat value chain (seed, area, grain, and foods) to understand the key drivers and barriers to its adoption relative to successful non-biofortified varieties by the different wheat value chain players in Pakistan.

The specific objectives include:

1. Assess the market share of zinc wheat seed and zinc wheat grain and compare it with the market share of high-performing non-biofortified wheat seed and grain in Punjab over the last ten years.
2. Assess and compare the consumption of zinc wheat food by people in farms that grow it versus those that buy it from the market.
3. Assess the drivers and barriers of adoption, of zinc wheat varieties by seed producers, farmers, millers, and farmers consumers (end-users), comaring with other successful (non-biofortified) varieties in Punjab, Pakistan.
4. Map out the institutional roles for key players in varietal development for biofortified and non-biofortified varieties of wheat to understand the varietal development pipeline.
5. Estimate the dietary zinc supply delivered to small holder farming families by zinc wheat and non-biofortified wheat based on secondary analysis of zinc concentration data of wheat varieties and their average consumption based on a quasi experimental study design of zinc wheat consumers and non-consumers in Punjab, Pakistan.

Research Questions

1. Who are the main institutional players in the varietal development pipeline? What role do they play? What is their vision of the future of the pipeline?
2. What were/are/will be, the key pivots that enabled a rapid scaling of zinc wheat varieties in Punjab relative to other non-biofortified varieties that have experienced comparable success?
3. To what extent can farmers and consumers positively identify grain of zinc wheat varieties from non-zinc wheat?
4. What are the key sources of zinc wheat seed in Punjab and how has this changed over the last seven years?
5. How do small holder farmers market their zinc wheat (mixed or segregated) to the market? Are the buyers able to positively identify/distinguish zinc wheat grain from non-zinc wheat grain in the market?
6. To what extent do aggregators and processors demand segregated zinc wheat from farmers?
7. How does the availability of and per capita intake of zinc wheat foods differ between consumers that produce their own zinc wheat and those that buy it from the market? How do these figures compare with those amon non-biofortified wheat producers/consumers?
8. What are the drivers and barriers of adoption, for zinc wheat varieties and successful non-zinc wheat varieties for the supply chain actors in Punjab?
   1. R&D institutions developing varieties and releasing them, as well as produce breeders’ nuclear seed (BNS)
   2. seed producers
   3. seed retailers/vendors
   4. small holder farmers
   5. Punjab food department
   6. other aggregators
   7. small chakki mill operators
   8. chakki mill customers
   9. other important value chain links
9. What proportion of the wheat area (all varieties) is planted with farm-saved seed in Punjab and what generation of the farm-saved seed do farmers use? How does this differ for zinc wheat and non-zinc wheat?
10. How has the share of wheat seed that is zinc wheat changed over the last seven years?
11. How has the share of wheat area that is zinc wheat changed over the last seven years?
12. What is the average yield of zinc wheat and non-zinc wheat varieties attained by farmers in Punjab?
13. How does the growth trajectory of zinc wheat seed and competing non-biofortified seed, area share, and grain, look like through 2030?
14. What are the most promising pipeline varieties (zinc-biofortified and non-biofortified) at multiple site farm trial stages and their principal agronomic and nutritional characteristics?
15. What is the dietary impact of zinc wheat varieties relative to non-biofortified wheat varieties in separate wheat growing areas in Punjab (e.g. areas covered by zinc wheat versus areas where zinc wheat is not grown or grown minimally)?

Deliverables

1. Detailed protocol for systematically mapping the footprint of zinc wheat seed and foods and non-biofortified wheat seed and foods in Punjab province, including the dietary zinc intake study design to assess the nutritional impact of zinc wheat relative to non-zinc wheat in the province.
2. Inception report, based on initial review of existing literature and interviews with HarvestPlus, HarvestPlus Solutions, seed companies, relevant government officials, crop research & development institutions, and millers (owners of small chakkis and large-scale millers).
3. PowerPoint slide deck to be used to present the findings to HarvestPlus.
4. Final, publishable manuscript including data set(s) produced and data collection tools used. The manuscript should include a detailed framework describing drivers and barriers for scaling improved wheat varieties based on findings for zinc wheat; evidence based description of the scaling model used for Akbar 2019; the estimated zinc supply delivered to small holder farming households by zinc wheat and non-biofortified wheat in Punjab; a map of areas planted with zinc wheat and non-biofortified wheat varieties in Punjab (past and current); lessons learned on elements for successful scaling of wheat varieties (biofortified and non-biofortified) that can be applied in other similar or related operational environments for scaling other high performing wheat varieties; and conclusions/recommendations based on findings from the study.

Required Skills and Experience

• Individual or organization including experienced staff with advanced degrees, in Agricultural Economics, Seed Systems/Technology (Agronomy), Food and Nutrition Sciences, or other closely related fields
• At least 5 years experience carrying out in-depth qualitative and qualitative surveys in the wheat value chain in Pakistan
• Extensive experience and understanding of the public and private seed production/distribution in Pakistan
• Proven experience programming open-access data collection tools (e.g. Kobo Toolbox or related platforms)
• Excellent data analysis skills using R/STATA/SPSS/Excel or related packages
• Excellent writing and verbal communication skills in English; Hindi and Urdu a plus
• Documented track record in publication of scientific research in peer-reviewed journals
• Ability to develop and apply forecasting models that can help project future trends

Terms of Appointment

This is a short-term consultancy/assignment requiring physical involvement to collect primary data along the wheat value chain from breeders, seed producers, agro-dealers, farmers, millets, and consumers. The assignment includes 60 workdays, and will be up to 90 days total.

Instructions to Apply

Please submit your technical proposals, financial proposals, CV(s), and 3 most recent client references for similar work, on the IFPRI website. Please direct any questions about the assignment to Bho Mudyahoto at b.mudyahoto@cgiar.org.